KINSHASA, DRC – The Democratic Republic of Congo’s tightening of cobalt export controls has triggered fresh volatility in global battery metal markets, drawing renewed attention to China’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials despite its dominance in mineral processing.
Congo, the world’s largest producer of cobalt intermediates, moved to restrict shipments as part of a broader strategy aimed at managing supply, stabilising prices, and securing greater national benefit from its vast mineral wealth. The policy shift has had immediate consequences for the cobalt market, where supply disruptions have translated into sharp price movements.
Although China accounted for roughly 78 percent of global refined cobalt output in 2024, according to International Energy Agency data, the country’s limited domestic mining capacity leaves it heavily dependent on overseas sources — particularly Congo. That dependence is now under strain.
Export Controls Slow Shipments
Kinshasa suspended cobalt exports in February last year before introducing a quota-based regime. Under the new framework, fourth-quarter 2025 exports were capped at 18,125 metric tonnes, while total shipments for 2026 have been limited to 96,600 tonnes, including a 10 percent allocation set aside as a strategic reserve.
Implementation delays compounded the disruption. Industry data indicate that virtually no cobalt left the country during the final months of last year, with the first recorded shipment under the revised system departing only in January.
Given typical transport timelines of up to three months to reach Asian processors, analysts caution that supply tightness is likely to persist in the near term.
Prices Surge Amid Supply Stress
Market reaction has been swift. Refined cobalt prices on international exchanges have climbed dramatically, rising from around US$10 per pound in early 2025 to approximately US$25 per pound.
Supply pressure has been even more pronounced in intermediate materials such as cobalt hydroxide. Payable rates — the percentage of the metal price paid for raw or semi-processed material — have surged from roughly 55 percent earlier in the year to near parity with the full metal price, signalling acute shortages.
Chinese buyers have increasingly turned to inventories to cushion the shock. Data from exchange-linked warehouses show substantial withdrawals, reflecting efforts to offset delayed shipments from Central Africa.
Limited Alternatives
While Indonesia continues to expand cobalt production as a by-product of its nickel industry, projections suggest additional output may not be sufficient to counterbalance Congo’s export constraints in the short term.
This imbalance has amplified concerns across the battery and electric vehicle value chain, where cobalt remains a critical input despite ongoing efforts to reduce dependency through alternative chemistries.
Geopolitical Competition Intensifies
The developments unfold against a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical rivalry over critical minerals. The United States has stepped up engagement in Central Africa, pursuing investment partnerships and infrastructure initiatives designed to diversify supply chains and reduce Western dependence on Chinese-controlled processing networks.
Recent announcements from U.S. development finance institutions signal growing American interest in Congo’s copper and cobalt sectors, while new logistics corridors are emerging to reshape mineral export routes.
Structural Vulnerability Exposed
For China, the episode underscores a recurring challenge within its resource strategy. Despite commanding influence over downstream processing, the country remains exposed to policy and supply risks in resource-rich jurisdictions.
The pattern extends beyond cobalt to other strategic minerals, highlighting the growing importance of upstream supply security as global demand for battery metals accelerates.
As electrification trends gather pace worldwide, Congo’s policy decisions — and the resulting market dynamics — are likely to remain a focal point in the evolving contest for critical mineral dominance.
