Zimbabwe’s economy is expected to expand by about 5% in 2026, placing it well above the projected global growth rate of 2.6% at a time when international economic momentum is weakening. According to The Herald, the forecast is drawn from the World Bank’s latest global estimates, which indicate that Zimbabwe is likely to outperform the wider world economy and broadly match the faster-growing parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.
The World Bank’s outlook reflects a global environment marked by slowing trade and elevated uncertainty. While the world economy showed resilience in 2025, supported by stockpiling of goods, strong financial market sentiment and heavy investment linked to artificial intelligence, these drivers are now expected to fade. As reported by World Bank, global growth is forecast to ease to 2.6% in 2026, with downside risks linked to rising trade barriers and tighter financial conditions.
Against this backdrop, Zimbabwe’s projected performance stands out. The country is expected to sustain growth at roughly this pace into 2027, even as regional and global trends remain uneven. Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to grow by about 4.3% in 2026, while many emerging and developing economies continue to struggle to restore incomes to pre-pandemic levels. More than a quarter of these economies still have per capita incomes below 2019 levels, underlining the importance of domestic reform and macroeconomic stability.
Zimbabwean authorities argue that the outlook is anchored in improving fundamentals rather than short-term boosts. The government expects agriculture and mining to lead overall expansion, supported by relatively favourable global commodity prices. Growth is also being linked to efforts to stabilise prices, manage the exchange rate and improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. Officials maintain that this policy mix is intended to restore confidence, attract investment and broaden participation in the economy.
Fiscal discipline remains central to the strategy. The government has committed to keeping the budget close to balance, limiting reliance on inflationary financing and aligning spending more closely with revenue. This approach is intended to avoid the cycles of sharp expansion and contraction that previously destabilised the economy. Monetary policy has followed a similar path, with inflation control and liquidity management prioritised to strengthen confidence in the currency and reduce market distortions.
The sectoral composition of growth is also expected to underpin the 2026 projection. Agriculture is benefiting from improved access to inputs and policy support, while mining continues to provide export earnings and foreign currency inflows. Manufacturing and services are projected to contribute as electricity supply improves and reforms aimed at reducing regulatory and logistical bottlenecks take effect. According to International Monetary Fund assessments of regional trends, economies that combine sectoral recovery with credible macroeconomic frameworks are better placed to sustain growth and attract private capital.
The confidence surrounding 2026 is reinforced by stronger performance in 2025, when growth is estimated at between 6% and 6.6% following a weaker outcome in 2024. The rebound has been attributed to recoveries in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, electricity generation and wholesale and retail trade. This provides momentum heading into 2026 and suggests that the expected moderation to 5% reflects normalisation rather than a loss of traction.
Risks remain significant. Climate-related shocks, weaker external demand and shifts in global financial conditions could still undermine the outlook. The World Bank has warned that growth could falter if trade tensions escalate or investor sentiment deteriorates. Even so, the current projections suggest that Zimbabwe is positioned to outperform the global average, provided macroeconomic stability is maintained and structural reforms continue to reduce barriers to investment and productivity growth.
