HARARE — Zimbabwe is earning substantially more from exports, but the composition of that growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in mining, raising fresh questions over the resilience of the country’s external sector.
Mineral and mineral-linked products accounted for an estimated 85.5% of Zimbabwe’s US$7.36 billion merchandise exports between January and July 2026, according to an Equity Axis analysis of trade data.
The proportion has risen sharply from 72.9% in 2024, highlighting a structural shift in which the expansion of the export economy is being driven overwhelmingly by commodities extracted from the ground.
The divergence is striking in value terms.
Total exports increased by about 88.8%, from US$3.90 billion in the first seven months of 2024 to US$7.36 billion over the corresponding period this year. Mineral-linked exports, however, increased by approximately 122%, from US$2.84 billion to US$6.30 billion.
Exports outside the mineral basket remained virtually unchanged at about US$1.06 billion.
In other words, Zimbabwe has not diversified its export base at anything close to the pace at which its mineral economy has expanded.
Gold increasingly dominates the export machine
Gold sits at the centre of the transformation.
Identifiable gold exports across the trade series amounted to approximately US$15.95 billion between January 2021 and July 2026, including semi-manufactured and other non-monetary gold categories.
Annual receipts climbed from about US$1.61 billion in 2021 to US$4.64 billion in 2025, with a further US$3.37 billion generated in just the first seven months of 2026.
Gold consequently accounted for approximately 45.8% of total exports in January-July 2026, compared with about 22.6% during the corresponding period in 2021.
The implication is significant: almost half of Zimbabwe’s export earnings are now directly associated with a single commodity.
That makes the country’s foreign-exchange position increasingly sensitive not only to domestic gold production but also to international prices and the conditions governing the global gold market.
Nickel remains a major pillar
Nickel provides the second major component of the mining export complex.
Nickel mattes generated approximately US$6.78 billion between 2021 and July 2026, while nickel ores and concentrates contributed another US$3.52 billion.
Together, the two categories generated roughly US$10.3 billion during the period.
But the trajectory has differed from gold. Nickel ore exports exceeded US$1 billion annually in 2021 and 2022 before declining sharply, while gold accelerated and became increasingly dominant.
The shift illustrates an important feature of Zimbabwe’s mineral economy: the export basket can change substantially even while remaining concentrated within mining.
New minerals broaden the basket — but not enough
Zimbabwe’s mining story is also becoming more diverse within the mineral complex.
The category classified as “other mineral substances” rose from only about US$20 million in 2021 to US$878 million in 2023 and approximately US$679 million during the first seven months of 2026.
“Other ores and concentrates”, meanwhile, was negligible through 2023 before reaching US$247 million in 2024, US$159 million in 2025 and US$282 million by July this year.
Together, the two categories represented about 13.1% of January-July exports.
Ferrochrome has generated approximately US$1.93 billion since 2021, while coke and semi-coke contributed about US$853 million. Platinum, chromium and iron and steel have added further layers to the country’s mineral export complex.
The development is significant because some of these products embody greater domestic processing than the export of raw ore.
But beneficiation, while potentially increasing domestic value retention, does not by itself solve the concentration problem. Zimbabwe remains heavily dependent on the same broad commodity sector for its external earnings.
Tobacco leaves little room for the rest of the economy
The concentration becomes even more pronounced when tobacco is included.
Minerals and tobacco together represented an estimated 96.3% of identified exports in January-July 2026, compared with 88.4% in 2024.
More revealing is what happened to everything else.
Exports outside the mineral and tobacco categories fell from approximately US$451 million to US$270 million, a decline of around 40%, even as overall merchandise exports nearly doubled.
This is the clearest indication that Zimbabwe’s export boom is not yet a broad-based tradables recovery.
The country is generating substantially more foreign currency, but the increase is being captured disproportionately by mining and, to a lesser extent, tobacco.
Export concentration now extends to markets
The vulnerability is not confined to products.
July trade data indicate that gold, other mineral substances and nickel mattes accounted for more than two-thirds of monthly exports. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates, China and South Africa absorbed close to 90% of Zimbabwe’s US$1.47 billion July export bill.
Zimbabwe therefore faces concentration on two fronts: what it sells and where it sells it.
That creates a potentially significant external-sector vulnerability. A sustained change in commodity prices, disruptions to mining output or weaker demand from a major trading partner could have an outsized effect on foreign-exchange inflows.
The diversification test
The latest numbers do not diminish the importance of mining to Zimbabwe’s economy. On the contrary, stronger mineral earnings have improved the country’s capacity to generate foreign currency, support the trade balance and attract investment into mining and processing.
The policy challenge is what happens alongside that expansion.
For the export economy to become structurally stronger, non-mineral exports must grow in absolute dollar terms, rather than simply becoming a smaller percentage of a rapidly expanding mining-led total.
Manufacturing, horticulture, processed agricultural products and other tradable industries therefore need to move beyond their current low base.
The critical benchmark for Zimbabwe is no longer whether exports are growing. They clearly are.
The question is whether the country can convert today’s mineral windfall into a broader productive export economy before the concentration itself becomes a source of vulnerability.
For now, the numbers point in the opposite direction: Zimbabwe’s export economy is getting bigger, but its foundations are becoming narrower.
