HARARE — Zimbabwe’s fixed Internet market is undergoing a structural shift, with satellite broadband provider Starlink posting a record-breaking surge in traffic while incumbent fibre operator Liquid Intelligent Technologies cedes market share in a rapidly expanding sector.
According to the Postal and Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of Zimbabwe (POTRAZ) Q4 2025 sector report, Starlink Zimbabwe recorded a 42.76% quarter-on-quarter increase in fixed Internet and data traffic, rising from 117.83 petabytes (PB) to 168.21PB.
Over the same period, according to Equity Axis, Liquid saw its fixed Internet traffic market share decline by 8.32 percentage points, falling from around 59% to 50.5%. Its absolute traffic volumes also contracted by 10.54%, from 259.7PB to 232.3PB, despite overall market growth.
Starlink Drives Sector Expansion
Total fixed Internet traffic in Zimbabwe rose 8.86% in Q4 2025, from 440.89PB to 479.94PB — a net increase of approximately 39PB. However, Starlink alone contributed roughly 50.4PB in additional traffic, exceeding the sector’s total growth.
This implies that, excluding Starlink’s contribution, the market would have contracted, highlighting the scale of disruption introduced by satellite broadband. Starlink’s 8.32 percentage-point gain represents the largest single-quarter shift in market share since the rollout of commercial fibre networks in Zimbabwe.
Infrastructure Divide Shapes Competition
The competitive dynamics reflect fundamentally different infrastructure models. Liquid operates a 4,631.4km national fibre backbone — a fixed, high-capacity network optimised for urban centres, corporate clients, and fibre-to-the-home corridors developed over the past decade. However, extending connectivity beyond these zones often requires costly last-mile solutions such as leased infrastructure, microwave backhaul, or fixed LTE.
By contrast, Starlink’s low-earth orbit satellite model bypasses terrestrial constraints. A satellite dish, power supply, and unobstructed sky access enable connectivity in remote and underserved areas, including farms, mines, safari lodges, rural schools, and peri-urban settlements.
POTRAZ data indicates that multiple access technologies are growing simultaneously: fixed LTE subscriptions rose 6.99% in Q4, fibre subscriptions increased 7.42%, and Starlink-driven VSAT subscriptions surged 31.62%. This suggests Starlink is not merely displacing existing providers but expanding the total addressable market.
Bridging the Connectivity Gap
Zimbabwe’s Internet penetration reached 84.55% in Q4 2025, up from 82.87% in Q3, while broadband penetration climbed to 82.63%. Growth is being driven in part by connectivity gains in previously underserved regions.
The regulator notes that while 19% of the urban population is covered by 5G, approximately 73.7% of rural communities rely on 3G coverage — underscoring a persistent digital divide. Starlink is increasingly targeting this gap, connecting areas where fibre and mobile infrastructure have proven economically unviable.
Rising Investment, Mounting Cost Pressures
The sector is simultaneously experiencing an investment surge. Mobile network operators (MNOs) doubled capital expenditure to ZWG 1.08 billion in Q4 2025, up from ZWG 508.92 million in the previous quarter — a 112% increase.
Econet Wireless Zimbabwe led 5G expansion, deploying 42 additional base stations to reach a total of 340, while NetOne Zimbabwe added five, bringing its total to 26. Sector-wide, 5G base stations reached 366 by the end of the quarter, covering approximately 18.9% of the urban population.
However, the aggressive rollout is exerting pressure on profitability. The MNO cost-to-income ratio deteriorated to 59.95% in Q4, up from 57.22% in Q3, as operating costs rose 11.52% compared to revenue growth of 6.33%.
Strategic Inflexion Point
For Liquid, the Q4 data signals more than cyclical pressure — it reflects a structural challenge. The company’s fibre-based model, while dominant in high-density corridors, faces increasing competition from a technology that eliminates the need for physical infrastructure deployment.
The key strategic question now is which segments of Liquid’s customer base remain defensible against a satellite provider that requires no trenching, rights-of-way, or local network build-out.
As Zimbabwe’s connectivity landscape evolves, Q1 2026 data will be critical in determining whether the current trajectory — marked by rising investment, expanding access, and intensifying competition — translates into sustainable revenue growth or prolonged margin compression across the sector.
