The Mozambican Government forecasts an average economic growth of 4.9% starting in 2027, driven by Liquefied Natural Guide (LNG) megaprojects, reaching 9.5% in 2029 with the entry into production of new operational units. The forecast is contained in the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario 2027–2029, approved Tuesday by the Council of Ministers, which will serve as the basis for drafting the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) for 2027, the spokesperson for the meeting explained at its conclusion in Maputo.
Inocêncio Impissa added that the document constitutes “the State’s primary instrument for macro-fiscal and budgetary programming,” establishing “the fiscal strategy, macro-economic and fiscal projections, and global expenditure ceilings for a three-year horizon.”
According to the official, it allows for the “anchoring of preparations” for the PESOE, “reinforcing discipline, predictability, and transparency in public financial management.”
“The medium-term fiscal scenario 2027–2029 establishes a prudent, realistic, and executable fiscal framework oriented toward macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of public finances,” he stated.
Impissa said that the Government expects “a gradual recovery of economic activity within a context still marked by external challenges, including restrictive financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and climate risks.”
“In the baseline scenario, real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] is expected to grow by an average of around 4.9% per year with gas and 2.1% without gas, potentially reaching 9.5% in 2029 with the entry into production of liquefied natural gas projects,” he declared.
Mozambique has three approved development megaprojects for exploring the LNG reserves of the Rovuma Basin—classified among the largest in the world—off the coast of Cabo Delgado. These include the TotalEnergies project, which is resuming, and another by ExxonMobil (18 million tons per year (mtpa), valued at 30 billion dollars (26.1 billion euros)) awaiting a final investment decision, both located on the Afungi Peninsula.
Added to these is Italy’s Eni, which has been producing around seven mtpa since 2022 from the Coral Sul floating platform. This operations ledger will be doubled starting in 2028 with a second platform, Coral Norte, representing an investment of 7.2 billion dollars (6.2 billion euros), alongside plans for a third unit.
The Government document also projects a gradual reduction in inflation, which is expected to fall from 8.7% in 2026 to around 5.5% in 2029.
“From a fiscal standpoint, the approved scenario reflects the Government’s commitment to the gradual consolidation of public finances,” the spokesperson stated.
To achieve this, the administration will reinforce “the mobilization of internal revenues, the improvement of public expenditure efficiency, and the containment of structural pressures, with a particular emphasis on the wage bill and debt service charges.”
“The Government will continue to prioritize selective and phased public investment oriented toward strategic sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, human capital, and the structural transformation of the economy,” he declared.
The executive also points to a gradual decrease in the weight of public debt within the economy: “It predicts the stabilization and gradual reduction of public debt, which is expected to decrease from 72.2% of GDP in 2025 to 67.1% in 2029.”
“Debt service should also reduce significantly, reflecting a more prudent management with the lengthening of maturities, greater recourse to concessional financing, and a reduction in exposure to short-term instruments,” he added.
The Government recognizes, however, the existence of “internal and external” risks that could compromise the execution of projections, “including climate shocks, security concerns, public spending rigidity, international market volatility, and global financial conditions.”
Even so, he added, “the Government will continue to monitor these risks and adopt the necessary measures to preserve the stability of public finances.”
With the approval of the document, the foundations for preparing next year’s budget are now defined, Impissa concluded.
Source: Lusa
