HARARE — After several years defined by macroeconomic volatility, climate shocks and policy uncertainty, Zimbabwe’s economy in 2025 has delivered a markedly different narrative, one anchored in stability, record sectoral output and improving investor confidence, according to The Herald.
For regional and international investors, the year marks a potential inflexion point: not a flawless turnaround, but a demonstrable shift towards predictability, production and policy coherence.
From Shock to Stabilisation
The contrast with 2024 is stark. Last year’s El Niño-induced drought sharply curtailed agricultural output, tightened rural incomes and reverberated through the broader economy. Entering 2025, however, Zimbabwe benefited from a combination of improved rainfall, tighter macroeconomic management and a more disciplined fiscal–monetary policy mix. Together, these factors restored a degree of confidence that had long been absent from the economic landscape.
At the centre of this recovery has been inflation control. For an economy historically undermined by price instability, the deceleration in inflation has been nothing short of transformative. Annual inflation measured in the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency rose from 85.7 percent in April to a peak of 95.8 percent in July, before falling sharply to around 15 percent by December. This reversal reflects tighter fiscal discipline, reduced reliance on inflationary financing and improved exchange-rate management.
For investors, inflation stability is not merely a headline statistic. It reduces pricing risk, improves cash-flow forecasting and enables longer-term capital planning, conditions essential for productive investment rather than speculative positioning.
Global Tailwinds and Domestic Policy Alignment
Zimbabwe’s domestic stabilisation efforts have been reinforced by favourable global trends. International inflationary pressures eased in 2025 as post-pandemic supply chain disruptions normalised and commodity prices softened. Lower global energy and food prices reduced imported inflation, complementing domestic policy measures and easing cost pressures on producers.
This alignment between external conditions and internal policy execution has been critical. As economic commentator Tinevimbo Shava notes, stability has tangible microeconomic effects: predictable prices extend real incomes, stabilise supply chains and reduce panic-driven pricing behaviour that has historically distorted markets.
Agriculture: The Engine of Recovery
Agriculture has reasserted itself as the cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s growth story in 2025. Benefiting from improved rainfall patterns, expanded irrigation capacity, mechanisation and targeted Government support, the sector is estimated to have grown by approximately 24 percent. This alone contributed around 2.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
The rebound has had multiplier effects across the economy. Higher output translated into increased rural incomes, improved food security and stronger demand for transport, storage, agro-processing and trade services, sectors that are particularly attractive to investors seeking scalable value-chain opportunities.
The tobacco industry stands out as a flagship success. Zimbabwe sold roughly 300 million kilogrammes during the season, achieving 94 percent of its target and earning US$944 million. More than 108,000 farmers participated, reflecting continued broad-based inclusion. Although average prices softened slightly to US$3.37 per kilogramme, total sales exceeded 350 million kilogrammes for the marketing season, breaking national records and generating over US$1 billion in value.
Equally significant was wheat production, which surpassed 640,000 tonnes, another record—underpinned by deliberate planning, irrigation investment and strategic public–private partnerships. For investors, these outcomes underscore the viability of agribusiness, logistics, inputs manufacturing and food processing as medium-term growth sectors.
Mining: Foreign Currency Anchor and Confidence Signal
Mining has remained the backbone of export earnings and foreign currency inflows. Despite softer prices for some base metals, the sector is projected to grow by 7.3 percent in 2025, buoyed by record international gold prices and rising domestic output.
Gold has been the standout performer. Zimbabwe surpassed its annual production target of 40 tonnes, reaching 41.8 tonnes by November. Artisanal and small-scale miners contributed nearly three-quarters of this output, highlighting the success of formalisation initiatives and incentive structures aimed at improving official deliveries.
Foreign currency earnings from gold surged by nearly 89 percent year-on-year to US$3.76 billion in the first ten months to October. These inflows have played a pivotal role in supporting exchange-rate stability, strengthening reserves and anchoring inflation expectations—factors closely watched by portfolio and direct investors alike.
As analyst Namatai Maeresera observes, gold’s impact extends well beyond mining itself: stronger forex earnings stabilise the macroeconomic environment, improving price stability, availability of goods and overall business confidence.
Manufacturing and Energy: Rebuilding the Productive Base
Manufacturing growth of an estimated 4.2 percent signals a tentative but meaningful recovery. While capacity utilisation remains below potential, the sector has benefited from lower inflation, improved power availability and reduced exchange-rate volatility. Firms have been able to stabilise production, retain employment and gradually reinvest, laying the groundwork for deeper value addition and import substitution.
Electricity generation expanded by 6.7 percent, easing one of the economy’s most binding constraints. Improved power supply has reduced downtime and operating costs across mining, manufacturing and services, directly enhancing competitiveness and returns on capital.
Services, Demand and Fiscal Discipline
On the demand side, wholesale and retail trade, financial services and ICT have recorded strong growth, reflecting renewed consumer confidence and improved liquidity conditions. These sectors thrive in environments where prices and exchange rates are predictable—conditions increasingly evident in 2025.
Fiscal discipline has reinforced these gains. Cash budgeting and expenditure alignment limited inflationary pressures and reduced policy uncertainty. Although fiscal space remains constrained, consistent execution has strengthened credibility with businesses and investors.
Infrastructure: De-risking Investment Through Connectivity
Infrastructure development has been a defining feature of 2025. The completion and commissioning of the Trabablas Interchange in Harare marked a major milestone, easing congestion in the capital while strengthening Zimbabwe’s role as a transit hub along the North–South Corridor.
Progress on the Harare–Masvingo–Beitbridge Highway, now nearing completion, further enhances regional connectivity, lowering logistics costs for exporters and manufacturers. Nationwide road upgrades under the Emergency Road Rehabilitation Programme and National Development Strategy 1, financed largely through domestic resources, signal a commitment to reducing structural bottlenecks.
Growth Outlook and the Investment Implication
Zimbabwe’s projected GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2025 reflects more than cyclical recovery. It is the product of inflation control, sectoral diversification and improving confidence. Importantly, growth has begun to translate into tangible gains: higher rural incomes, stronger export earnings, job retention and improved service delivery.
Risks remain, global commodity price volatility, climate uncertainty and geopolitical trade tensions among them. However, 2025 demonstrates that consistent policy implementation and macroeconomic stability can unlock Zimbabwe’s productive potential.
For investors, the message is clear: Zimbabwe is not without challenges, but it is increasingly investable. The foundations laid in 2025, if sustained, offer a credible platform for resilient, inclusive growth and long-term returns across agriculture, mining, manufacturing, infrastructure and services.
