HARARE – The simmering succession contest within Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu PF has reached a critical juncture as President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s allies push to extend his rule beyond the constitutional two-term limit.
Ten of the party’s ten provincial structures have now endorsed a resolution—first mooted at the 2024 Bulawayo conference—to keep Mnangagwa in office until at least 2030, effectively granting him a third term.
The move sets the stage for a decisive showdown at Zanu PF’s forthcoming annual conference in Mutare, where Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga and his loyalists will be forced to choose between open resistance and reluctant acquiescence.
The 2030 Resolution: A Calculated Power Play
Last year’s Bulawayo conference quietly adopted a proposal to “align the presidential term with Vision 2030,” a development blueprint championed by Mnangagwa. At the time, the language appeared aspirational. But the steady march of provincial endorsements suggests a coordinated strategy to make the extension a reality.
Party insiders describe a months-long mobilisation campaign by Mnangagwa’s faction. Provincial chairpersons were reportedly courted with promises of cabinet reshuffles, development funds, and protection of their political fiefdoms. “This is not just about Vision 2030,” said a senior party official who requested anonymity. “It is about consolidating power and keeping the Old Man in charge while others jostle for succession.”
Chiwenga’s Dilemma
For Chiwenga, the former army commander who played a pivotal role in the 2017 military-assisted transition that brought Mnangagwa to power, the stakes could not be higher. Constitutionally, Mnangagwa’s second and final term ends in 2028. Many in the party have long viewed Chiwenga as the natural successor, given his influence in the military and his own presidential ambitions.
Yet his position is far from secure. Analysts note that Mnangagwa has spent years methodically neutralising potential rivals. Key military figures once aligned with Chiwenga have been reassigned or retired, while the party’s powerful provincial chairpersons increasingly owe their allegiance to Mnangagwa.
“Chiwenga faces an impossible choice,” said political analyst Dr. Ibbo Mandaza. “If he openly resists, he risks being sidelined or humiliated. If he quietly accepts, he forfeits any realistic path to the presidency.”
Factional Undercurrents and Strategic Alliances
The succession battle is not a simple two-man contest. Multiple factions have emerged, each with its own calculations. Younger party leaders such as Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and Information Minister Jenfan Muswere are said to be aligning with Mnangagwa, betting that his continued rule will create opportunities for their own ascendancy in a post-Mnangagwa landscape.
Meanwhile, war veterans and some elements within the security establishment remain sympathetic to Chiwenga, viewing him as a guarantor of their influence and privileges.
“Zanu PF is a coalition of interests held together by power and patronage,” observed University of Zimbabwe political scientist Eldred Masunungure. “The 2030 gambit forces every player to declare their loyalties, and that is inherently destabilising.”
Constitutional Hurdles and Public Backlash
Legally, extending Mnangagwa’s term requires either a constitutional amendment or a controversial reinterpretation of existing provisions. Both paths are fraught. The 2013 Constitution clearly limits a president to two five-year terms. Amending it would need a two-thirds majority in Parliament and possibly a referendum.
Opposition parties and civil society groups have already vowed to challenge any attempt to “move the goalposts.” Nelson Chamisa’s Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) has accused Mnangagwa of plotting to “subvert the will of the people,” while lawyers’ groups warn of a constitutional crisis if Zanu PF proceeds without broad national consensus.
International observers are also watching closely. Western governments that eased some sanctions after Zimbabwe’s 2018 elections have tied further engagement to democratic reforms. A bid to extend Mnangagwa’s term could strain those fragile relationships, potentially affecting investment and aid.
Mnangagwa’s Calculus
Despite these obstacles, Mnangagwa appears undeterred. Addressing the Zanu PF Central Committee last week, he urged members to “introspect as a party” and “win the 2028 harmonised elections,” carefully avoiding any explicit mention of term limits. Allies interpret this as a signal to press ahead.
“The president believes his Vision 2030 agenda needs continuity,” said a senior Mnangagwa adviser. “He sees himself as indispensable to economic recovery and political stability.”
The Road to Mutare
All eyes now turn to Mutare, where the annual conference is expected to formalise the provinces’ resolutions. While official agendas are closely guarded, party insiders predict heated debates behind closed doors. Whether Chiwenga will mount a challenge, strike a compromise, or remain silent will shape Zimbabwe’s political trajectory for years.
“If Chiwenga capitulates, Mnangagwa will be virtually unassailable,” said Mandaza. “But if he resists and gains support, we could see a repeat of the factional warfare that consumed Zanu PF in the Mugabe era.”
For ordinary Zimbabweans grappling with inflation, power cuts, and unemployment, the outcome could have profound implications. A protracted power struggle may delay economic reforms and further erode public trust in state institutions.
As the Mutare convention approaches, the question reverberating through the corridors of Zanu PF is no longer whether Mnangagwa wants to stay beyond 2028, but whether anyone within the party has the will—or the power—to stop him.
