JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s agricultural exports rose to US$4.12 billion in the second quarter of 2026, generating a US$2.14 billion trade surplus despite a sharp decline in shipments to the United States, as exporters increasingly turned to Asian and Middle Eastern markets to offset trade uncertainty.
Agricultural exports increased 9.1 percent from a year earlier, while imports climbed 6.4 percent to US$1.98 billion, according to a joint quarterly report by agricultural industry organisations AgriSA and Agbiz.
The resulting trade surplus expanded 11.6 percent, underscoring the resilience of one of Africa’s most internationally competitive agricultural industries amid mounting tensions between Pretoria and Washington.
However, exports to the United States fell 28 percent during the quarter, reflecting changes in shipment schedules ahead of anticipated American tariff adjustments and growing uncertainty surrounding preferential market access.
The decline comes against a backdrop of diplomatic disagreements between the administration of US President Donald Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, including disputes over land policy and immigration restrictions.
Although the US Congress has voted to extend South Africa’s eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act through 2028, the arrangement still requires executive action, according to the supplied account.
Ramaphosa has urged businesses to prepare for the possibility of losing preferential access to the American market while seeking to maintain commercial relations between the two countries.
The latest trade figures suggest that South African agricultural exporters are already reducing their reliance on traditional destinations.
Exports to Vietnam surged 153 percent year-on-year, while shipments to Saudi Arabia increased 90 percent and those to China climbed 30 percent.
China’s introduction of zero-tariff access for African agricultural products in May has created additional opportunities, although South Africa’s ongoing foot-and-mouth disease outbreak continues to restrict some livestock exports.
Citrus and other horticultural products remained central to the country’s export performance, with horticulture accounting for 51.3 percent of total agricultural export sales.
The strong contribution from fruit and horticultural products reflects South Africa’s established commercial farming infrastructure, export-oriented production and access to international distribution networks.
AgriSA chief executive Johann Kotzé said the industry’s performance demonstrated its ability to adjust to an increasingly difficult international trading environment.
“Exporters are finding new markets even as traditional destinations become more challenging,” Kotzé said in comments published in the joint AgriSA and Agbiz report.
He cautioned that sustaining the gains would require improvements in animal disease control, port and rail operations and access to overseas markets.
The expansion into Asia also highlights a broader shift in African trade patterns as exporters seek to diversify commercial relationships amid uncertainty over American trade policy.
For South Africa, the immediate economic benefit is the preservation of agricultural export earnings, which support rural employment, foreign currency inflows and investment in food production.
However, faster growth in emerging markets does not necessarily eliminate the risks associated with weaker American demand.
Exporters must contend with differences in logistics costs, regulatory standards, consumer preferences and the profitability of individual destinations.
Agbiz researcher Charmaine ka Makhaya said the emergence of new opportunities in Asia and the Middle East reinforced the importance of diversifying agricultural export markets.
South Africa’s agricultural sector also faces domestic constraints, including electricity costs, transport bottlenecks and recurring animal disease outbreaks, which can undermine competitiveness regardless of external demand.
The latest figures nevertheless suggest that exporters have been able to redirect shipments and maintain overall growth despite deteriorating trade conditions with Washington.
For Pretoria, the performance strengthens the economic case for expanding trade relationships beyond traditional Western markets while preserving access to established customers.
The challenge now is whether the country can turn a strong quarter of export growth into sustained market diversification without sacrificing profitability or weakening its existing trading relationships.
