CAPE TOWN — South Africa’s planned removal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could put between 3,000 and 10,000 jobs at risk while increasing costs across the American citrus supply chain, according to industry and labour representatives cited by Business Insider Africa.
The Trump administration intends to terminate South Africa’s eligibility for the US trade programme from 1 January 2027, ending preferential duty-free access for selected exports, including citrus, wine, vehicles and automotive components.
The potential impact is expected to fall most heavily on agriculture and manufacturing, with export-dependent communities in the Western Cape particularly exposed. Although AGOA-related exports account for about 1% of South Africa’s total global exports, the consequences could be significant for businesses whose production and investment decisions have been built around American demand.
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa warned that the decision would affect businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. South African fruit entering the US will face ordinary import duties once preferential treatment ends, while mandarins, lemons and grapefruit will also remain subject to a separate 12.5% Section 301 tariff. Oranges are exempt from that additional tariff but will lose their AGOA duty-free status.
The association said South African citrus supports employment in the United States through importing, shipping, handling, distribution and retail. Its exports also complement domestic American production by supplying fruit during periods when local availability is limited.
Redirecting shipments to other markets will not be straightforward. Growers have developed orchards and export arrangements around US demand, while alternative destinations impose different phytosanitary requirements, seasonal conditions and consumer preferences. Competition from countries such as Chile and Peru, which benefit from trade agreements with Washington, could further weaken South African exporters’ position.
South Africa exported approximately US$1.7 billion in goods to the United States under AGOA in 2025, making it the programme’s largest beneficiary. However, several industries were already facing pressure from separate US tariffs, including the automotive, steel and aluminium sectors. Vehicle-export earnings from the American market fell to about R8 billion in 2025, from R17.7 billion a year earlier, according to figures cited by the business sector.
Pretoria has said it will continue engaging Washington while supporting affected exporters and accelerating efforts to diversify trade towards other markets. However, the adjustment could take time, particularly for producers whose infrastructure, supply chains and commercial relationships are closely tied to American buyers.
