In a new development in the security crisis, Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has issued a general amnesty for fighters of Al-Shabaab, calling on them to surrender and reintegrate peacefully into society.
The Somali president urged the group’s militants to renounce their extremist ideology entirely and return to their homes and families, pledging that the Federal Government of Somalia would guarantee safety and full amnesty to all who voluntarily abandon the movement.
The federal government maintains that the amnesty constitutes a strategic step, offering an immediate opportunity for disillusioned members to defect. It described the initiative as a plan to accelerate further splits within Al-Shabaab, with the aim of weakening its operational capacity “without firing a single bullet.”
This move comes as Al-Azhar Observatory for Combating Extremism warned that “the alarm of terrorist danger is rising along the Somali–Kenyan border during the month of Ramadan, amid a bloody strategy pursued by Al-Shabaab to terrorize civilians and carry out cross-border attacks.”
In a statement, the Observatory explained that the field escalation began last Saturday night, when elements of the group executed by firing squad ten civilians in the areas of Bu’ale in Middle Juba and Qunyo Barrow in Lower Shabelle in southern Somalia, noting that the movement intensifies its activity during this period to exploit heightened religious sentiment in Ramadan.
Al-Shabaab is regarded as the most dangerous and best-funded affiliate of Al-Qaeda. Observers warn that the internal conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia and regional states is undermining the country’s counter-insurgency strategy and opening the door to terrorist groups.
Territorial Gains
The presidential step follows significant territorial advances achieved by the group after it launched a broad offensive in 2025, seizing dozens of towns and villages in areas surrounding Mogadishu, the capital, whose isolation has been deepening by the day.
In a report issued on 24 July, the The Soufan Center stated: “The movement advanced amid growing division and fragmentation within Somalia’s domestic political scene. The struggle for power between the Federal Government of Somalia and states such as Puntland and Jubaland undermines coordination and counter-terrorism efforts.”
In a related context, Salam Tadesse Demissie, a Horn of Africa researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, argued that political fragmentation hampers efforts to combat Al-Shabaab and that further disintegration of the Somali government is possible if political divisions persist and the upcoming elections prove exclusionary or contested.
“The weaker the authority of the state,” he noted, “the more Al-Shabaab advances from rural areas into cities almost overnight, enabling these militants to infiltrate state institutions and penetrate formal governance structures.”
He added that since 2012 successive Somali administrations have struggled to sustain counter-insurgency operations, primarily due to a recurring cycle in Somali politics: each new administration begins with intensive counter-terrorism efforts, only for those efforts to wane as political tensions rise ahead of elections, diverting attention and resources to other priorities.
Mounting Challenges
Somalia faces multiple challenges in combating Al-Shabaab, foremost among them, according to observers, military inefficiency within the national army and the group’s reliance on guerrilla warfare tactics.
Activist Mohammed Abd al-Ghani stated that, following the failure of the government’s military campaign—supported by the international coalition—in central Somalia, the government continues striving to achieve recruitment levels commensurate with its security responsibilities.
He added that despite repeated government assurances of its capacity to stabilise Somalia under Western backing, officials are currently negotiating with international partners over a multinational force to support their continued presence in the country. “This means,” he argued, “that international coalition forces will return under a new name only, to conceal their defeat.”
For his part, Somali Federal Parliament member Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame stated: “Al-Shabaab remains the most dangerous security challenge in the region. It has evolved from an insurgent organisation into a ‘shadow state’ controlling vast swathes of territory, levying taxes on the population, and skillfully exploiting the central government’s weaknesses.”
He added that despite military campaigns supported by the African Union mission and airstrikes by allied countries, the battle remains uneven and lacks real effectiveness. “When armed forces liberate major cities, Al-Shabaab withdraws to rural areas and spreads its extremist ideology to influence and recruit, capitalising on extreme poverty, the absence of services, and widespread corruption,” he said.
“The most dangerous development,” he warned, “is the transformation of Al-Shabaab into a societal phenomenon that attracts the desperate and marginalised—demonstrating that a purely security-based solution is insufficient to defeat extremism without a parallel economic and political strategy.”
He concluded that once corruption becomes normalised and permeates all state institutions, the people cannot be blamed for turning to extremist ideologies in search of solutions.
Insecurity Across the Regions
Somalia’s regions are witnessing alarming security deterioration, particularly in the South West State, amid mounting humanitarian challenges driven by food insecurity.
Security expert Mohammed Somani stated that the decline in government military operations over the past five years has enabled Al-Shabaab to expand its influence and territorial reach, providing it with new revenue streams and emboldening further acts of terrorism. He noted that the group’s fighters are active in 10 of Somalia’s 18 regions, with varying levels of activity.
The movement fully controls Middle Juba in Jubaland and holds several areas in the regions of Mudug, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle across the states of Galmudug, South West State of Somalia, and Hirshabelle.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the group raises approximately $100 million annually through various funding streams, including taxation and the extortion of local companies and traders, bolstering its terrorist activities.
Over the past year, the group intensified its operations. In March, it attacked Somali army bases in the area of Awdheegle in Lower Shabelle, South West State. In a separate assault, its fighters targeted the areas of Hawaa Abdi and Lafole, located 15 kilometers from Mogadishu. During the same period, the motorcade of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was struck by a roadside bomb at the El-Gabta junction near the presidential palace in the Hamar Jajab district of central Mogadishu. The explosion, claimed by Al-Shabaab, killed at least eight civilians and wounded others, while the president and his entourage survived the attack.
Source: IOL News