HARARE – Zimbabwe’s official statistics show a welcome cooling in both ZiG- and US dollar-denominated inflation, signalling tentative progress toward price stability as the year draws to a close.
According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), annual inflation in ZiG terms decelerated to 82.7 percent in September, down from 93.8 percent in August and 95.8 percent in July. On a month-to-month basis, ZiG inflation slipped into negative territory at -0.2 percent, a 0.6-percentage-point improvement from August’s 0.4 percent rise.
ZIMSTAT attributed much of September’s moderation to easing prices in food and non-alcoholic beverages, categories that carry significant weight in the consumer basket.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) said it remains optimistic that annual ZiG inflation could fall to around 20 percent by December, supported by tight monetary policy, improved foreign-currency liquidity, and more disciplined fiscal spending. Economists caution, however, that the target is ambitious and will depend heavily on continued exchange-rate stability and robust agricultural supply.
In hard-currency terms, US-dollar inflation also softened to 13.4 percent year-on-year, offering relief to businesses that trade or import in foreign currency. Month-on-month USD inflation remained subdued, reinforcing the view that price pressures are gradually receding.
Market analysts say the data will be closely watched by investors and retailers alike. “The combination of negative monthly ZiG inflation and stable dollar prices suggests that the worst of the price spikes may be behind us—provided the government maintains fiscal discipline and the RBZ holds its monetary line,” said an economist at a leading Harare brokerage.
With the peak festive-season demand approaching, policymakers face the delicate task of sustaining this disinflationary trend while ensuring sufficient liquidity to keep industry and consumer spending on track.
