HARARE — Zimbabwe’s pasta market is facing a fresh trade-policy test after the Competition and Tariff Commission opened a safeguard investigation into rising imports, following a complaint by National Foods Limited that foreign competition is placing its newly established domestic production operation under pressure.
The investigation comes as pasta imports rose 17.4% in 2025, increasing from about 49.5 million kilogrammes in 2024 to 58.1 million kilogrammes, according to the commission’s notice published in the Government Gazette.
National Foods, which started manufacturing pasta locally in February 2024 after previously relying on imports, argues that the increase in foreign product is occurring in quantities and under conditions that threaten the domestic industry.
The commission is now examining whether the import surge amounts to serious injury to local production and whether temporary protection is justified while the investigation proceeds.
The case presents a broader industrial-policy dilemma for Zimbabwe: how to encourage companies to invest in domestic manufacturing without shielding inefficient production from legitimate competition or imposing higher prices on consumers.
The Zimbabwe Financial Mail understands from analysts familiar with Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector that the investigation will be closely watched because it tests whether the country’s current trade-policy framework can balance industrial development, consumer welfare and competition.
Imported pasta represented approximately 88% of the domestic market in 2024 and 87% in 2025, according to the commission. Import volumes were equivalent to roughly 6.7 times National Foods’ domestic production in 2024 and seven times local production in 2025.
The commission also found evidence of price undercutting, with imported pasta selling at prices as much as 17.8% below comparable locally produced products.
For National Foods, the issue is therefore not simply one of market share. The company has argued that the increase in imports has contributed to weaker financial performance and mounting losses at a production operation that was established only recently.
But the commission has cautioned against attributing all of the company’s financial difficulties to imports.
Its preliminary assessment found that National Foods’ production, sales, capacity utilisation, productivity and market share improved during the period under review.
The regulator also pointed to the significant start-up and expansion costs associated with the company’s decision to move from importing pasta to manufacturing it locally.
Analysts who spoke to The Zimbabwe Financial Mail said this distinction will be critical to the investigation because a safeguard measure cannot simply be justified by the existence of cheaper imports.
“The central economic question is whether imports are causing material injury to an otherwise viable domestic industry, or whether the producer is still absorbing the normal costs of establishing a new manufacturing operation,” one analyst said.
Another analyst said Zimbabwe should be careful not to turn industrial policy into permanent protectionism.
“Safeguards can provide breathing space for a new industry, but they should be accompanied by measurable productivity and competitiveness targets. Otherwise consumers ultimately finance industrial protection through higher prices,” the analyst said.
National Foods has asked the commission to impose a provisional safeguard measure while the investigation is under way.
The commission said it was assessing whether circumstances existed in which delaying such intervention could result in injury that would be difficult to remedy later.
The investigation covers the period from February 2024 to December 2025 and is expected to be completed within six months, although the commission may extend the process once for up to two additional months.
The outcome could have implications beyond pasta.
Zimbabwe has increasingly sought to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity and reduce dependence on imported consumer goods, but the effectiveness of that strategy depends on whether local producers can eventually compete on cost, quality, scale and productivity rather than relying indefinitely on trade barriers.
For consumers, the policy trade-off is equally significant.
A safeguard that reduces import competition could give National Foods greater room to expand production and recover its investment. But if domestic production remains substantially more expensive, restricting imports could translate into higher retail prices and reduce consumer choice.
The commission has therefore invited local producers, importers, exporters, foreign manufacturers, exporting-country governments, trade associations and other interested parties to participate in the investigation.
Submissions are expected to address not only the alleged injury to domestic production but also whether any proposed safeguard would serve the wider public interest.
For Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector, the pasta dispute has consequently become a test of a much bigger proposition: whether import substitution can evolve into globally competitive industrial production, or whether it will remain dependent on protective measures to survive.
