South Africa’s maize industry is export-oriented. Over the past five years, the country has exported roughly three million tonnes of maize each year. One of its largest markets is Zimbabwe, typically accounting for about 18% of annual exports.
But in the near term, these exports may decline because the Zimbabwean government has banned imports of maize. This comes on the back of improved domestic production in the country, leading the regulators to believe that, at least for the near term, there are sufficient supplies and no need for imports. This is also an effort to protect the farmers whom the government supported with inputs at the start of the season.
While we recognise the logic of the Zimbabwean policymakers, we generally prefer minimal interference in agricultural markets, as intervention may disrupt the efficient allocation of scarce resources or functioning of the market. We believe that in times of abundant harvests, farmers and agribusinesses must be allowed to export and benefit from the global market. In times of droughts or floods, trade must still be allowed.
Indeed, there may be short-term economic pain for consumers through higher prices in deficit years when imports are needed, but this induces farmers to plant more in the succeeding seasons.
The more immediate unintended consequence of Zimbabwe’s ban is a limited price benefit to consumers, as the ban might artificially increase the domestic price by restricting more competitively priced imports from South Africa and other origins.
It is also worth highlighting that Zimbabwe may not keep the ban for long. We are doubtful that the country has sufficient maize supplies for the entire marketing year. We believe that there may be a need for maize imports later in the season. This is because Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is projected at 1.3 million tonnes, according to data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just over twice the output from the previous season, which was a drought period.
Still, it is not sufficient to cover the country’s annual maize needs of about two million tonnes, potentially leaving an import gap of around 700,000 tonnes.
When Zimbabwe finally returns to the import market, South Africa may again be one of its suppliers. In the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports. However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia regaining its net exporter status as it expects a bumper harvest of 3.66 million tonnes. This far surpasses Zambia’s maize consumption of 2.8 million tonnes per annum.
There will be competition in the market, with Zambia potentially regaining a notable share in the Zimbabwean market, while South Africa is also likely to remain a major supplier.
South Africa forecasts this season’s domestic maize harvest at 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the 2023-24 season. The forecast is well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
For South African maize exporters, the message here is that Zimbabwe may not be a conducive market in the near term, as it has ample domestic supplies. This absence of Zimbabwe in the near term also implies that domestic maize prices may be under pressure for some time.
However, later in the season, Zimbabwe may return to the market and import maize, which will give upward support to the maize prices. The USDA forecast suggests that the expected crop is insufficient to meet annual consumption, and there may be a need to import around 700,000 tonnes of maize to support the domestic needs. This figure, however, remains tentative, as it is hard to assess the scale of Zimbabwe’s maize production by the smallholder farmers. Thus, it may be that the import need is less than we anticipate.
Still, we believe imports may be required later in the season. At such time, South Africa is likely to be ready and able to supply the volume Zimbabwe needs. For the near term, South Africa’s maize exports will probably be to the Far East markets and the broader southern Africa region. Daily Marverik
