TOKYO/LONDON,- World stocks recovered some losses on Monday and gold fell by the most in a year, dropping with government bond prices and oil as investors reversed some defensive positions taken going into the weekend on fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
The week ahead is packed with corporate earnings, with 158 companies in the S&P 500 and 173 companies in the STOXX 600 reporting first quarter results this week, according to data from LSEG Workspace.
These include several big European banks, as well as U.S. tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet, with the latter in particular focus after chip maker Nvidia’s 10% drop on Friday, its biggest percentage fall in four years.
Crucial U.S. PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, due Friday, finishes off the week. After CPI data earlier this month, markets currently see the first Fed rate cut as most likely coming in September, though they are not ruling out July.
“The big picture in equities is that they have been able to digest this push back in rate expectations,” said Karim Chedid, Blackrock’s chief investment strategist for iShares EMEA.”Now earnings have to deliver for them to continue to do well.”
Ahead of all that, shares rose on Monday, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4% (.STOXX), opens new tab and S&P 500 futures 0.6% higher after MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.87%. All fell on Friday.
London’s commodities-heavy FTSE-100 rose around 1.66% (.FTSE), opens new tab, the biggest gainer among large European benchmarks, and neared an all-time high as tin and nickel rose to multi-month peaks.
It was outpaced by a 2.3% gain for the Portuguese index (.PSI20), opens new tab as oil company Galp Energia (GALP.LS), opens new tab had a STOXX 600-topping 17% jump after saying a field off Namibia could contain 10 bln barrels of oil.
In a further reversal of Friday’s “risk off” mood, gold dropped 2% to $2,341.9 an ounce, its biggest daily percentage fall in over a year, though it is still not too far from its April 12 record high of $2,431.29.
In recent weeks, investors have taken cautious positions on Fridays, fearing an escalation in the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend when markets are closed and they are unable to trade.
“It seems neither Israel nor Iran want an escalation in the crisis in the Middle East … and with a subsequent strike from either side not looking like it’s coming, investor concerns have eased somewhat,” said Kazuo Kamitani, a strategist at Nomura Securities.
However, Kamitani said expectations of later Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns about chip sector earnings will continue to keep investors on their toes.
Iran said on Friday that it had no plan to retaliate following an apparent Israeli drone attack within its borders, which in turn followed an Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel days before.
HAVEN OUTFLOWS
Bond yields – which climb when prices fall – rose back toward multi-month highs.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last up 4 basis points to 4.66%, heading back toward the five-month peak of 4.696% reached last week on the view that the Fed would be in no hurry to ease policy amid robust economic data and sticky inflation.
European yields also edged higher.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, rose 0.19% to 106.28. It was also at a five-month top last week, at 106.51.
“As long as there is this uncertainty about the cutting cycle particularly in the U.S, it’s interesting for investors to be in dollar longs because of its dual status as a high yielding currency and also a defensive currency,” said Yvan Berthoux, FX strategist at UBS.
Crude oil fell as traders put the focus back on fundamentals with a rise in U.S. stockpiles as the backdrop.
Brent futures fell 73 cents, or 0.84% to $85.56 a barrel.
Source: Reuters
